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Francis Report 10-08 Dave Francis The fighting back has finally begun. It is about time, and come what may, the idea of bringing the fight to them is the best option the US had. It is far better to have this war on the rocky turf of Afghanistan than the expensive turf of Manhattan. Frankly, if there is going to be any collateral damage, let it be theirs. There is an old story, probably not entirely true, about George Patton after the end of WWII. Supposedly Patton, still itching for a fight, suggested that we attack the Soviets, since as he put it, “You know we are going to have to fight the SOB’s someday. We might as well do it while the men and equipment are already here.” In retrospect, Patton was wrong, and we were able to avoid an armed, full scale conflict with the Soviet Union, which eventually fell apart due to it’s own, internal problems. The same spirit may apply to todays war though. For all the talk about holding countries that harbor terrorists responsible, and treating them like terrorists, it seems like we are avoiding facing the problem that is Iraq. Apparently, coalition building is the watchword of the day, and we are concerned that attacking Iraq may upset some of our coalition partners. Coalition partners. Saudi Arabia, supposedly the US’s most loyal ally in the region has US forces that are risking life and limb to protect them, but they wont let us use their air fields, (Which we built.) to strike any Arab country. There was a major shakeup in the royal family over this issue, and the pro-Arab side won. I reported earlier that King Fahd had left Saudi Arabia with a huge retinue, landing in Geneva. The King, flying in his hospital plane, landed in Geneva on September 19th, in what was first misunderstood as simply an effort to be in a neutral site when the hostilities began, returned Thursday, Sept. 27th. Prince Abdullah, the king’s half brother was the hard-liner on the issue, and refused to allow the Americans to use the Prince Sultan air base as a command and control center. Prince Abdullah is technically next in line for the throne, but due to the illness of King Fahd, Abdullah effectively runs the country. A coalition made up of these kind of friends is not worth preserving. It is my considered opinion that if the US led coalition would use the military capabilities it possesses first, the diplomatic coalition would fall in place automatically. Nothing would make the Arab states more amenable to US requests than a devastated foe or two. Right now, even if an Arab state wanted to line up with the US, they have to worry about our resolve. If we don’t do the job right, they don’t want to be left politically alone in the region, with Iraq, Iran, Syria, et al staring down their throats. To paraphrase Winston Churchill, it is time to ‘war-war,’ we can ‘jaw-jaw’ later. The US attack centered on four areas. Kabul, Kandahar, Jalalabad, and Heart were struck with a combination including cruise missiles and bombers. There were 30 separate targets. It is hard to say what damage was done, since there is so little of real value to be destroyed. Ground troops are going to be necessary, and they may be coming in contact with an enemy that most in the US government didn’t expect. In what has to be viewed as a very disturbing development, Chinese troops are reportedly moving into Afghanistan, with the idea of helping the Taliban resist the US backed coalition. Unconfirmed sources say between 5000 and 15000 Muslim Chinese troops have moved into Afghanistan, some crossing the border as early as October 5th. The Chinese moved into Afghanistan on the old Krakoram road, with troops moving to the Tadjik border, directly opposite US-Russian troops massing on the other side, and to Jalalabad. It is thought that the Chinese are concerned about the growing spirit of cooperation between Russia and the US, and are hoping to see the US led coalition bogged down in a conflict that would remove forces from the Straits of Taiwan, leaving the Pacific rim vulnerable to possible Chinese expansion. It also removes several thousand armed Muslims from China proper. The Xingjaing province of China has had problems in the past with it’s Muslim population. In the city of Kashgar, there have been frequent, violent confrontations with Chinese troops in the past, and this atmosphere is being complicated by the events of September 11th. Many Kashgar Muslims are skeptical of U.S. allegations that Osama bin Laden and his radical Islamic followers were responsible for the attacks. "The Americans are talking rubbish when they say they know who did it. They don't know. None of us know," said Amaijan, a Uighur who uses just one name. "We are Muslims. The Afghans are Muslims. Of course, we don't want to see Muslims being attacked," said Mamiti, who sells copperware. "But there's nothing we can do -- the Han control us like this," he said, making a fist. "If we speak out, they arrest us." "There are always tensions between Han and Uighurs. Every five or 10 years they make trouble, we round them up and shoot a few. Then they don't make trouble anymore," said Li Chengjia, a Han Chinese who moved to Xinjiang four decades ago as a soldier and now drives a taxi in Kashgar. "There's a lot of us Han, but only a few of them Uighurs," Li said. "They've got to accept our rule." It is precisely this conflict between Han and Uighur Muslim Chinese that is the powderkeg the Chinese in Beijing have to balance. Russian and Israeli investigators have ruled out a missile as the cause of the mid air explosion of a Russian passenger airliner last week. They are leaning toward a theory that a bomb was planted in the ceiling of the airplane by a ground-crew employee in Novosobirsk who has since disappeared. The bomb, security forces believe, was planted before the plane left Siberia, on it’s way to Israel. Due to political implications, and instability in the Russian presidents current position, the true reason for the plane crash may never be admitted publicly, if it was a bomb. In some other notes: Russian media reports that Terrorist Mohammed Atta used a passport from the non-existant Republic of Conch to board the aircraft. In 1982, Peter Anderson of Key West, Florida began issuing passports to people, as a tourist gimmick, and Atta had apparently purchased one, and used it to board the airplane. According to German media reports, Osama bin Ladin has a high tech satellite phone, which he purchased for 10,000 dollars. The wonderful thing is, the number is 00873-682505331. Give ole Osama a ring, and tell him what for! The US Embassy in Russia has issued a “Warden Message” with a worldwide warning to be very careful, and not to take chances if you are overseas. Attacks on Americans in overseas locations is feared. Extra security is in evidence at the consulate here in St. Petersburg, with shadowy types in black leather coats stationed across the street and down the block. It almost looks like the old days, with KGB operatives spying on us, instead of now, with FSB operatives watching out for us. The Afghanis have announced that 20 civilians were killed in the attack on Kabul, but a check on four Kabul hospitals showed no deaths. Is it possible these guys would lie, on top of everything else? I got this press release: “The Iraq National Congress (INC) (A group in opposition to Saddam) has linked Osama bin Laden's network with Iraq, according to a release by the INC. In December 1998 Faruq Hijazi, a senior Iraqi intelligence official, traveled to Kandahar to meet bin Laden personally. He was accompanied by a group of Iraqi intelligence officers. Hijazi is now Iraq's ambassador in Turkey; he had previously served as head of the foreign covert operations division of the Mukhabarat. In addition, the INC has learned that Muhammad Atta, one of the terrorists involved in the World Trade Center event on 11 September, had met an Iraqi intelligence official in Prague. The official is known to be a close associate with Hijazi.” The Czech connection for Atta is all over the place. Iraq was involved in this thing, and turning our backs on the evidence may play in Peoria, but it makes us look weak in Cairo and Damascus. The Pakistan problem may unfold sooner, rather than later. While Pakistani strongman, General Musharraf has so far been walking a very fine line between appeasing his militant Islamic citizenry and staying on the right side of this fight against terrorism, it is a tightrope he may tumble from. Violent demonstrations have broken out in Pakistan, and things don’t look to be getting much better soon. There is a lot of talk about insurgency arising from the military. Musharraf took control of the government in a coup. DJF |